StanleyC
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FX next week: Commodities, 14 currency pair levels and targets
On the current random view to Commodities, Gold as XAU/USD and XAU/JPY trade deeply overbought. Cocoa trades massive overbought from the Softs. The speculation is the remainder category as USD Coffee, Orange Juice and Sugar also trade overbought alongside DXY. The problem to downside moves for Commo
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Footprints comparison
Paris, Gare de Lyon train station, April 2024. While waiting for his train to Marseille, a traveler wanders through the stores. As he has some time to spare, he lingers in one of them, which sells smartphones. A good opportunity to upgrade? After all, his current device is already four years old, th
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Forex trading short on Gold and Silver – AUD/CHF in double top [Video]
These bumps in USD pairs are why we get you to watch the US Federal Reserve Press Conferences. We can find some great opportunities. As expected the US Fed did not raise Interest Rates yesterday. However, during the press conference 30 minutes later, Jerome Powell made it clear that the next rate ch
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Fed stands pat
USD: Jun '24 is Up at 105.630. Energies: Jun '24 Crude is Up at 79.41. Financials: The June '24 30 Year T-Bond is Down 7 ticks and trading at 114.26. Indices: The Jun '24 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 144 ticks Higher and trading at 5082.50. Gold: The Jun'24 Gold contract is trading Down at 2308.
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FX markets reflect uncertain interest rate outlook
USD – Uncertainty is high The EURUSD has been moving in a range since the beginning of 2023. Interest rate expectations have changed constantly during this time, but neither of the two economic areas has been able to gain a lasting advantage. This is likely to have been the reason for the relatively
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The new mantra: Rates – Higher for longer
Dollar gets sold on the hint that rates could be cut at year end. Gold rallies on Wednesday, and gets sold on Thursday... Go figure! Good Day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to one and all! Another game where the Cardinals' bats were silent or left in the bat rack yesterday, and they came home from a
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US Unit Labor Costs rise 4.7% in Q1 vs. 3.2% expected
Unit Labor Costs rose more than expected in the first quarter. US Dollar Index stays below 106.00 after the data. Unit Labor Costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 4.7% in the first quarter of 2024, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Thursday. This reading followed the no ch
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Was Mr. Powell hawkish or dovish yesterday?
Analysts haven’t made up their mind about whether Mr. Powell was hawkish or dovish yesterday. We see both terms applied in various reports. In FX, the consensus seems to fall on the side of dovish and “sell the dollar.” Never mind that rates fell only a little and are higher than anyone else’s. The
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FOMC statement: Not bringing in any major surprise
S&P 500 withstood strong ADP employment change, overlooking soft landing incompatibility and focusing on the no stagflation angle as that was what helped sink stocks Tuesday (ignore crude oil inventories). Both manufacturing PMI and JOLTS supported soft landing, yet stocks didn‘t rally before FO
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USD/CHF makes a temporary reversal after Swiss inflations jumps
Swiss CPI figures released earlier today came out above expectations, at 1.4%, leading to a reversal of some recent losses for the Swiss franc against other currencies. Observing the USD/CHF pair, we notice a significant intraday drop that appears to be an impulsive move down from a new high. Ideall
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BoC's Macklem: Canadian inflation to stay close to 2.9% for next several months
While speaking before the House of Commons Finance Committee on Thursday, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem said Canadian inflation rate will probably stay close to 2.9% for the next several months, citing rising gasoline prices, per Reuters. "Here is a limit to how far US and Canadian inte
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Q1 productivity: Ignore the quarterly chop – Trend favorable for inflation
Summary The latest productivity report is not as discouraging as viewing the quarterly prints in isolation would suggest. Slower growth in Q1 paired with a pickup in hiring and hours worked led productivity growth to nearly stall in Q1 (+0.3% annualized), while unit labor costs (ULCs) strengthened t
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Narrowly smaller US trade deficit in March
Summary The U.S. international trade deficit narrowed modestly in March, but consistent with the Q1 GDP data out last week, the deficit was wider for the quarter. Underlying trade flows remain volatile, but stronger domestic growth should support further widening in coming months. Trade flows flip i
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Forex Today: US Dollar pushes higher ahead of key US data, Fed policy decisions
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, May 1: The US Dollar (USD) preserves its strength on the first trading day of May as investors gear up for key data releases and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. The ADP will release the private sector employment report for April ahead of t
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