Daily Forex News and Watchlist: USD/CAD

We won’t see tons of top-tier reports today, but Canada’s manufacturing PMI and crude oil price movements could make volatility interesting for USD/CAD traders!

Check out what I found on the 15-minute time frame.

Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist looked at AUD/NZD’s downtrend pullback ahead of RBA’s policy statement. Be sure to check out if it’s still a good play!

And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:

Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:

S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for June: 46.3 (as forecasted) vs. 48.4 in May

ISM Manufacturing PMI for June: 46.0 (48.0 forecast; 46.9 previous); Employment Index fell by -3.3 to 48.1; Prices Index fell -2.4 to 41.8

Russia and Saudi Arabia extended oil supply cuts, prompting a spike higher in oil prices on Monday

China hits back in the chip war, imposing export controls on Gallium and Germanium used in computer chips and solar panels Tstarting August 1 “to protect national security and interests.”

RBA keeps interest rates at 4.10%, shares inflation has “passed its peak” but that “some further tightening of monetary policy” may still be required

Price Action News

One of the biggest stories of Asian session trading was the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeping its interest rates at 4.10% when a few market players had priced in another 25bps rate hike.

The central bank also said that inflation has “passed its peak” but that rate hikes are still likely depending on the inflation and economic trends.

AUD, which had been ranging near its U.S. session levels, dropped to its Monday lows before recovering almost all of its intraday losses against its major counterparts.

One possible reason for the sharp recovery is a lack of a decisive sentiment trend, which probably resulted in profit-taking not long after the RBA’s event.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Economic Calendar:

Canada’s manufacturing PMI at 1:30 pm GMT
NZ ANZ commodity prices at 1:00 am GMT (July 5)
Australia’s retail sales at 1:30 am GMT (July 5)
China Caixin services PMI at 1:45 pm GMT (July 5)

Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️

USD/CAD: 15-min

In case you were too busy trading other comdoll pairs, you should know that the U.S. dollar has been on a lowkey downtrend against the Loonie since late last week.

USD/CAD found resistance at the 1.3280 area and the pair is now trading in what looks like a 40-pip range on the 15-minute chart.

Are USD/CAD just taking a breather? Or is USD/CAD ready to revisit last week’s lows?

Canada is printing its manufacturing PMI report and you can bet that traders will check to see if the Bank of Canada (BOC) will also get one more reason to pause its interest rate hikes.

We also can’t discount the FOMC meeting minutes report scheduled tomorrow, which could restart USD/CAD’s upswing.

Momentum above the S1 (1.3230) Pivot Point support could push USD/CAD back to the 1.3260 previous high if not the R1 (1.3270) zone in the next couple of trading sessions.

USD/CAD could even complete a bullish flag pattern and make new intraweek highs if there’s enough momentum!

But if Canada’s PMI surprises to the upside, or if traders take profits from their long USD trades ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, then USD/CAD could break its range and revisit the 1.3200 previous support area.

What do you think? Will USD/CAD remain inside its range? Or will we see a breakout this week?